How Did Your Premier League Final Table Prediction Go?
In August, as I do every season, I sat down and predicted what the final table would look like after the season was over. It’s always a difficult task because the transfer window isn’t completed. Plus it’s difficult to determine what football chairmen are going to do during a season like sacking a manager, and what effect that will have on the team’s fortunes.
To make it fair, I also asked you, the readers, to post your predictions of the final table. Here’s how we did:
I correctly predicted that Manchester United would win the title and that they would be buoyed by trying to get their 19th title so they could surpass Liverpool. From there, I didn’t do so well. I thought Arsenal would come in a strong second, but I didn’t predict they would collapse near the end of the season into fourth position. I thought Chelsea would end up in third, but they did one better by claiming second position. I completely got Manchester City wrong and predicted they would slip up after a slow start to the season and end up in seventh position. They ended up in third on a season high.
At the bottom of the table, I predicted that Blackpool, West Brom and Newcastle would get relegated. With Newcastle, I thought Mike Ashley would get too involved with the club again and that it would spell disaster. Full credit to Newcastle and Ashley, but they completely exceeded my expectations this season. I also completely underestimated West Brom’s ability. Who would have thought that Peter Odemwingie would have had such an impact at the Hawthorns?
Looking at your predictions in the comments section, here’s the name of the readers who had their prediction the closest to being completely accurate:
- Sarhan (Got the top of the table almost correct, and picked two of the three teams relegated),
- pungentjoe (Correctly predicted United and Chelsea at the top of the table; also predicted West Ham and Blackpool would get relegated),
- Madschester United (Got the top of the table almost correct)
- RedMenace (Correctly predicted most of the top of the table finishes)
- Soot (Predicted that Man City would win the FA Cup, correctly predicted two of the three teams relegated and picked almost the top four correctly)
- Ben Ruskin (Got the top three correct)
- And others came close too.
We’ll do the same thing again in August.
16 Responses to How Did Your Premier League Final Table Prediction Go?
I measure accuracy of prediction using a points system. For every prediction, you look at the difference between each team’s projected place and their actual place as an absolute value. Just like golf, the lower the number, the better.
While I didn’t post it here, my 2010-11 predictions I posted here (http://bit.ly/lk12ZP) got a 44, with 3/4 of the Champions League (including the top three) and 1/3 of the relegated teams correct. A better showing than my 2009-10 posting here (http://bit.ly/lV8okd), which scored a 50, including 3/4 of the Champions League and 2/3 of the relegated squads.
I had positions 1, 2, 4, 19, and 20 spot on and ManCity winning the FA cup, I feel like that should earn some bonus points. Almost had all 3 relgated teams correct, but Wigan pulled one out of thin air, good for them, but sooo close.
The only problem was my inability to be unbiased with my Spurs, no worries though, I will have them top 4 again next year.
What was the prize?
Not only was my Prem prediction awful, I picked Sheffield United to win the Championship.
Well done, me.
I dumb.
But I did pick Swansea to win the playoffs.
Which proves that sucking up to the Gaffer reaps rewards.
“I thought Arsenal would come in a strong second, but I didn’t predict they would collapse near the end of the season”
you mean like they have done every single season before recently?
I thought this season would be different. Honestly.
Cheers,
The Gaffer
Hi Gaffer:
Great post!
I wanted to tell you how much I enjoy your website. I found it a few months ago and now visit every day. Keep up the great work!
Les
Thanks Les for the kind words.
Cheers,
The Gaffer
I had
1. Manchester City
2. Manchester United
3. Arsenal
4. Liverpool
5. Chelsea
6. Spurs
I was just ahead of my time because that’s what it’s going to be at the end of next season
.
Patrick and I use a very similar system, if not exactly the same. I came out with 48 points, all 4 Champions League spots predicted correctly (not in the correct position though) and only 1 relegated team correct (Blackpool). My biggest errors were West Brom (who I had going down) and West Ham (who I had in 14th). I only correctly predicted 3 final positions (Chelsea, Man City, Everton). I thought Arsenal would win the league and United would finish 4th.
The Guardian finished with 40 points, besting my predicitons, and had all 4 Champions League teams correct and only Blackpool correctly relegated.
If I was able to correctly discern the final standing from the EPL Talk Season Preview Podcasts then I show Richard Farley with 36 Points (a fantastic score) all 4 CL teams correct and 2/3 relegated spots (West Ham and Blackpool).
Thanks Gaffer, love the site and the work you do.
Thanks for the kind words Daniel. And congratulations to all of you for doing so well in correctly predicting the teams final achievements.
Cheers
The Gaffer
I had a little friendly banter with a West Ham supporter in the initial article – he was sure they would stay up. I can honestly say I saw West Ham going down a mile away.
I think overall I did rather well. I think I’d do well with that point system relating to how many place off you were that someone suggested.
Man Utd – one place off
Chelsea – one place off
Man City – two places off
Arsenal – correct
Tottenham – one place off
Liverpool – three places off
Everton – correct
Fulham – one place off
Aston Villa – once place off
Sunderland – correct
WBA – way off
Newcastle – two places off
Stoke City – two places off
Bolton – one place off
Blackburn – one place off
Wigan Athletic – way off
Wolves – correct
—
Birmingham – way off
Blackpool – correct
West Ham Utd – correct
Not to get too cocky here but that’s a 27 using the point system, by the way!
Unless you actually count the placement of teams in the relegation zone against your points – even then it’s still a 30.
This was my prediction
1.Manchester United
2.Arsenal
3.Chelsea
4.Manchester City
5.Liverpool
6.Spurs
7.Everton
8.Aston Villa
9.Fulham
10.Birmingham
11.Stoke City
12.Sunderland
13.Blackburn
14.Newcastle
15.Bolton
16.West Brom
17.Wolves
Relegated
18.Wigan
19.West Ham
20.Blackpool
Thing is, this was probably my best effort in a long time. I really missed the boat with Birmingham City though.
My prediction was all right bar west ham not finishing 13th
Anyway here’s my prediction for this year (note I support Chelsea)
1 Chelsea
2 Man City
3 Liverpool
4 Man U
5 Spurs
6 Arsenal
7 Newcastle (probably get a decent striker with 35m)
8 Aston Villa
9 Everton
10 Sunderland (should also get a striker from money made from Bent)
11 QPR
12 Bolton
13 Swansea
14 Wigan
15 Fulham
16 Stoke
17 West Brom
18 Norwich
19 Wolves
20 Blackburn
again I think it’ll be very tight at the bottom so I don’t think Wigan-Blackburn will have a particularly bad season
Also Torres for Golden Boot
and Chelsea to win FA Cup and Champo League
1.man u
2.arsenal
3.man city
4.chelsea
5.spurs
6.everton
7.liverpool
8.newcastle
9.sunderland
10.aston villa
1 Man United
2 Man City
3 Arsenal
4 Spurs
5 Chelsea
6 Newcastle
7 Liverpool
8 Everton
9 Sunderland
10 QPR
11 Stoke
12 Fulham
13 Aston Villa
14 Bolton
15 Wigan
16 Blackburn
17 West Bromwich Albion
18 Wolves
19 Swansea
20 Norwich